Why I placed a $1,000 bet on Trump winning the 2016 election
Truly, I believe that Trump becoming the president of the US would be a contretemps, but I’m still placing a $1,000 bet on Trump winning the presidency.
You can get 1:3.9 odds on Trump, which means that if you put $1,000 in, you can walk away with a $3,900. Not at all a bad bet, given that a highly successful statistical model gives Trump a 97–99% chance of winning the election.
Betting on Trump is win/win.
Planet Money ran a podcast last year that extols the virtues of betting against yourself. Listen to the episode, but in summary:
If you’re so obsessed with your sports team that them losing will put you in a shitty mood? Place a bet on their opposing team. If your team loses, you win some money. If your team wins, well, fuck it — you’ll be too happy to mourn your financial loss.
Same goes for Trump. Placing a bet on him winning is a win/win situation: If he wins, I get some money (and $3,900 may just be enough money to emigrate). If he loses, I’ll lose some money, but at least I don’t have to suffer the embarrassment of trudging through the next four years with Trump as the billethead of my adopted homeland.
